COVID-19 numbers don't add up

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COVID-19 numbers don't add up

Raifu
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This post was updated on .
I'm looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#nav-today

Looking at the global statistics for COVID-19, they just don't make sense. Presumably, about as many people in the world are getting infected per day as they ever have been. We have 1,019,018 total cases, globally, and only 3,953 new cases on the last reported day.

1019018/3953 = ~257.78

Let that sink in. With the infection rate today, it would have taken about 258 days at the same rate to get where we are today, globally (if you just look at the USA, it's even more days). How did we get so many total infections, with so few new cases per day?

The first COVID-19 case was said to have been discovered in November.

The first reported case in the USA was 20 Jan 2020.

245373/496 = ~494.7

It would have taken about 495 days of new reported infections at the current rate to have gotten to where we are today, in the USA. As far as I've seen, new infections haven't been a terrible lot higher per day at any point, even if they have been higher.

We've got the same issue with total deaths compared to daily new deaths reported.

To get the number of deaths in the USA we have now, we would have had to have had an average of 83.5 deaths per day (since January 20th), but we only had 25 on the last reported day, which is presumably the most deaths we've had so far in a day.
Location: SW Idaho, USA
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Re: COVID-19 numbers don't add up

Raifu
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This post was updated on .
Edit (13 Apr 2020): I'm no longer certain that what I say in this post is the case. I probably saw the figures in the early morning, before they counted up very high. So, it doesn't explain why the numbers don't add up. Interestingly, the CDC and worldometers are reporting different USA death counts, today (a few thousand difference). So, I'd have to recalculate to see if the numbers add up.

Looking at Wikipedia (At the CDC Reported U.S. Totals), it becomes clear that the site I was examining was reporting things incorrectly, notwithstanding its prevelance on Google searches. Wikipedia shows that these numbers per country are not the number of new cases, but rather the percentages the total cases have increased by. This is alarming as some of those are some high percentages of new cases! (I mean, Russia is up by 601% in a day.)

So, in reality, we had 1,075 new deaths reported on the last day, in the USA, instead of 25.
Location: SW Idaho, USA
Climate: BSk
USDA hardiness zone: 6
Elevation: 2,260 feet
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Re: COVID-19 numbers don't add up

Raifu
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This post was updated on .
I think I'm going to start writing down the numbers to make sure they're not changing them, because yesterday, the death count for the day before yesterday seemed too much lower for the new deaths reported to create such a high number. It looks like it went up at least 4k in the USA during that time.

Worldometers.info:
15 Apr 2020:
USA:
Total cases: 648,003
New cases: 30,342
Total deaths: 32,443
New deaths: 2,618
World:
Total cases: 2,086,332
New cases: 84,651
Total deaths: 138,474
New deaths: 8,095

CDC:
USA:
16 Apr 2020:
"Total cases: 632,548 (632,220 confirmed; 348 probable)
Total deaths: 31,071 (26,930 confirmed; 4,141 probable)"

Huh. I think the discrepancy I noticed may have been because of probable cases not being counted. We shall see. Maybe it has to do with additional areas beginning to report old data.

I'm still waiting on today's totals to finish for worldometers (but they finish long before my day is over). It'll take at least another day or to to tell if anything is amiss, probably, other than obvious differences between worldometers and the CDC.
Location: SW Idaho, USA
Climate: BSk
USDA hardiness zone: 6
Elevation: 2,260 feet
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Re: COVID-19 numbers don't add up

Raifu
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Worldinfo:
16 April 2020
USA:
total cases: 677,570
new cases: 29,567
total deaths: 34,617
new deaths: 2,174
World:
total cases: 2,181,308
new cases: 95,022
total deaths: 145,470
new deaths: 6,996

This is the first time I've noticed the numbers declining from the previous day (although I haven't been checking on that for a couple days or so, particularly).
Location: SW Idaho, USA
Climate: BSk
USDA hardiness zone: 6
Elevation: 2,260 feet
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Re: COVID-19 numbers don't add up

Raifu
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CDC
17 April 2020
USA
total cases: 661,712 (1,282 probable cases)
total deaths: 33,049 (4,226 probable deaths)
Location: SW Idaho, USA
Climate: BSk
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Elevation: 2,260 feet
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Re: COVID-19 numbers don't add up

Raifu
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Worldinfo
17 Apr 2020
USA
total cases: 709,735
new cases: 32,165
total deaths: 37,154
new deaths: 2,535
World
total cases: 2,248,864
new cases: 86,497
total deaths: 154,145
new deaths: 8,672
Location: SW Idaho, USA
Climate: BSk
USDA hardiness zone: 6
Elevation: 2,260 feet
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Re: COVID-19 numbers don't add up

Raifu
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I skipped some days (on purpose; the news was taking too much time). Here are the totals, now:

CDC
26 Apr 2020:
USA:
Total cases: 957,875
Total deaths: 53,922

Worldometers:
27 Apr 2020:
World:
Total cases: 3,062,476
New cases: 69,206
Total deaths: 211,449
New deaths: 4,532
Total recovered: 921,314
USA:
Total cases: 1,010,356
New cases: 23,196
Total deaths: 56,797
New deaths: 1,384
Total recovered: 138,990
Location: SW Idaho, USA
Climate: BSk
USDA hardiness zone: 6
Elevation: 2,260 feet
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Re: COVID-19 numbers don't add up

Raifu
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Worldometers:
19 June 2020:
World:
Total cases: 8,750,990
Total deaths: 461,820
USA:
Total cases: 2,297,190
Total deaths: 121,407
Location: SW Idaho, USA
Climate: BSk
USDA hardiness zone: 6
Elevation: 2,260 feet
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Re: COVID-19 numbers don't add up

Raifu
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This post was updated on .
Worldometers (for yesterday):
World:
New cases: 173,650
New deaths: 5,071
Total cases: 9,520,818
Total deaths: 483,959
Total recovered: 5,169,767
USA:
New cases: 38,386
New deaths: 808
Total cases: 2,462,554
Total deaths: 124,281
Total recovered: 1,040,605

The new cases appear to be higher than they've ever been, for the USA, and especially for the world. That goes to show to me that the stay at home order and social distancing put in place actually were doing something, and that the decline wasn't due to the warmer temperatures. I'm a bit surprised the numbers rose so starkly before elementary and high school season, but considering how the virus can survive high temperatures, it shouldn't be surprising that it could proliferate in the summer.
Location: SW Idaho, USA
Climate: BSk
USDA hardiness zone: 6
Elevation: 2,260 feet
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Re: COVID-19 numbers don't add up

Raifu
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Worldometers (for yesterday, meaning, as in other posts in this thread, with the yesterday thing selected, which says it was two days ago):
World:
New cases: 196,963
New deaths: 4,847
Total cases: 10,795,162
Total deaths: 518,058
Total recovered: 5,934,994
USA:
New cases: 51,097
New deaths: 676
Total cases: 2,779,953
Total deaths: 130,798
Total recovered: 1,164,680
Location: SW Idaho, USA
Climate: BSk
USDA hardiness zone: 6
Elevation: 2,260 feet
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